$930 million in Bitcoin options expire next Friday Is there time to worry?

Much attention has been paid to the Bitcoin futures and options market, and every week the crypto media report record numbers of open interest. As the expiration date of other futures and options approaches, traders are becoming anxious due to the fact that the Bitcoin price (BTC) has consistently failed to pass the $10,000 mark.

To date, more than 100,000 Bitcoin Up options, totaling $930 million, are set to expire on June 26, and this figure represents almost 70% of their total open interest. On June 15, Bitcoin’s price dropped to $8,900, and this led investors to wonder if professional traders have become pessimistic as the June 26 expiration date approaches.

Although open interest does not allow one to predict market trends, it is possible to get more information by analyzing additional data such as the buy/sell ratio. This indicator provides a clear picture of investor sentiment, as call options are mainly used for bullish strategies.

Bitcoin whale population nears September 2017 levels
Total BTC options open interest

Skew’s data shows that open interest reached USD 1.3 billion, a 100% increase in the last two months. Currently, the Panama-based Deribit derivatives exchange accounts for 77% of the options market, although regulated companies such as CME and LedgerX are steadily gaining prominence.

CME options are mostly underwater
June CME Bitcoin options open interest by strike

The June 26 expiration of the current CME contract consists almost entirely of call options, hence the bullish positions. 75% of this open interest is now in the unlikely scenario of USD 11,000 and higher maturities.

This leaves a value of $67 million in call options that can potentially impact the market, which when compared to the average daily volume of $300 million traded in WEC futures, is unlikely to have a significant impact. In addition, investors should note that each WEC contract entitles them to 5 BTCs.